Oil, war and the limits of monetary policy
The article states that the current confrontation involving the United States, Israel, and Iran is unfolding along the same pattern as previous conflicts. Oil prices have moved sharply higher, trading in the range of $95 to $115 per barrel in recent weeks. Freight and insurance costs for Gulf shipments have surged.
Headline inflation in the United States has ticked up again after a period of moderation, with energy accounting for a significant portion of the increase. In Europe, forward inflation expectations have begun to edge upward. The article mentions the 1973 oil crisis, when oil prices quadrupled from around $3 per barrel to nearly $12 within months. Following the Yom Kippur War, inflation surged into double digits across advanced economies. The article also references the 1979 oil shock, when the Iranian Revolution disrupted production and triggered panic buying, doubling prices again.
Quick Summary
The US, Israel, and Iran are embroiled in a confrontation that's quickly becoming a macroeconomic shock- with oil at its center. As prices rise and confidence in supply weakens, the shock spreads into the broader economy- forcing monetary policy into the picture.
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