Sub-Saharan Africa GDP growth to soften to 4.3% in 2026
Sub-Saharan Africa GDP growth is expected to soften to 4.3% in 2026, a 0.3 percentage point lower than the projections in January 2026, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its April 2026 Sub-Saharan Africa Update. The IMF is projecting an uptick in median inflation to 5.0% by the end of 2026.
There is significant heterogeneity in the outlook, with growth accelerating among many oil exporting countries because of stronger export revenues and higher government spending, but decreasing for low-income countries and fragile states. Median sovereign spreads for countries in the region are still well below the levels seen in April 2025. The median current account deficit is projected to narrow by 0.3 percentage point of Gross Domestic Product [GDP] to 3.5% of GDP in 2026. Median fiscal deficits would reach 3.2% of GDP in 2026, higher by 0.2% of GDP compared to 2025.
Growth is projected to pick up again to 4.4 % in 2027, and median inflation to moderate to 3.9% by the end of 2027.
Quick Summary
The IMF's April 2026 Sub-Saharan Africa Update projects a softening of GDP growth in the region. Significant heterogeneity in the outlook exists, but fiscal deficits are projected to worsen - raising concerns.
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