A moment of risk and opportunity: How two ceasefires could boost US-Iran talks

Donald Trump and the leadership in Iran can take credit for bringing about a ceasefire. The announcement of a 10-day pause in the fighting between Israel and the Iranian-backed militia Hezbollah occurred Thursday night. Iran had demanded a ceasefire in Lebanon, saying talks with the US could not be expected to progress without it.

Benjamin Netanyahu can point to the fact that Israeli troops remain on the ground in southern Lebanon, while the Lebanese government now has direct negotiations with Israel. Hezbollah says it will abide by the ceasefire while insisting that it still has its "finger on the trigger". Senior Hezbollah leader Wafiq Safa said, "Not until a proper ceasefire, a real one. Not until Israeli withdrawal. Before the return of prisoners, before the return of displaced people and before the reconstruction. Until then, it is not possible to talk about Hezbollah's weapons." Shirit Avitan Cohen of Israel Hayom wrote, "The ceasefire effectively puts Israel's stamp of approval on the very situation the country had been trying to avoid: legitimising the link between Iran and the Lebanese theatre of operations."

Lina Khatib says the ceasefire paves the way for Israel and Lebanon to continue their face-to-face talks but that the obstacles to a peace agreement between the two are enormous. President Trump has said a deal with Iran is "very close".